MBA 500
Fall 2004
STATISTICS FOR MANAGEMENT
GOALS
Statistics aids in the solution of problems by gathering, analyzing, and interpreting data or numerical information. As you will see in later lectures, data are the essential ingredients upon which statistical decisions are made. Data are the raw materials that form the basis for business and managerial decisions.
As an academic discipline, statistics is a field of study and not merely the data used as input in the decision-making process. Numerical information, such as the prices of industrial equipment, employee wages, number of retail outlets in a city, or the assessed valuation of property in a country, may be correctly referred to as statistics. However, this course focuses on statistics as a field of study.
In this course, we study methods and theory.
Methods are techniques that assist the firm in deciding whether to stop the process or leave it alone. Theory is the basis for these methods. Theory guarantees that the methods are logically correct.
The theory and methods of statistics provides the logical foundation for solving decision problems. The methods of statistics are the rules and formulas of those methods necessary for critical thinking.
You will periodically have assignments with Minitab to ease the burden of computation decision-making. The computer techniques will be part of your educational process in statistics. Finally, you will clearly understand the role of statisticians in business decision-making and critical thinking. You will also note how important this role is in the reshaping of American and Global business.
Textbook:
BUSINESS STATISTICS FOR CONTEMPORARY DECISION MAKING, by Ken Black, 4th edition, (CD-ROM Text for Minitab Software).
Review of College Level Computer Skills Required for Study of Statistics
Example: Minitab on the PC; Use of Data Series; Windows Dialog Boxes
Introduction: Chapters 1 and 2
Decision Making and the Role of Statistics in the Development of Methods for Reducing Uncertainty in Decision Making; Frequency Distributions; Histograms by Minitab; Exploratory Data Analysis.
Summary and Descriptions of Data: Chapter 3
Summary Measures; Parameters and Statistics; Measures of Central Tendency; Measures of Variation; Measures of Skewness; Using Statistical Software; Deming’s Methods and the Use of Histograms; What is the Appropriate Parameter for Decision-Making
Probability: Chapter 4
Experiments, Sample Spaces and Events; Probability Measure; Addition Rule; Multiplication Rule; Bayes’ Theorem
Discrete Distributions and Expected Values: Chapter 5
Introduction to Random Variables; The Probability Distribution for a Random Variable; An Application to Management; Expected Value of R.V.; Role of Expected Values in Decision-Making; Bernoulli Trials; Binomial Distributions; Tables for the Binomial Distribution; Use of Statistical Software to Generate Binomial Tables; The Poisson as the Method for Finding the Probability of an Event for Unit of Time or Space; Poisson Tables; Generating the Poisson by Statistical Software.
Continuous Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions: Chapter 6
Probability Density Function of a Continuous Random Variable; Normal Distribution; The Standard Normal Curve as a Density Function; Calculating Normal Probabilities; Using the Table of Standard Normal Probabilities; the Normal as an Approximate to the Binomial; Generating Normal Probabilities by Statistical Software.
Sampling and Sampling Distributions: Chapter 7
What is a Sample; Scientific Sampling and Judgment Samples;
Public Opinion Polls as a Sample; Types of Probability Samples; Case
Studies of
Sampling such as the Current Population Survey; What is a Table of
Random
Numbers; Generating Random Numbers by Statistical Software; Case Study
– Sample
Command; Concept of the Sampling Distribution of Mean – of the
Proportion; Case
Studies such as Magazine Readership; Accounts Receivable and Gambling;
Point
Estimation; Criteria of Good Estimator; Point Estimates of m and
p .
Estimation for a Single Population (inference): Chapter 8
Confidence Interval for the Population; The t Distribution; Confidence Interval for the Population Proportion; Use of Statistical Software to Produce Confidence Intervals.
Statistical Decision Making for a Single Population: Chapter 9
Hypothesis Building and Testing; Type I and II Errors; The Test Statistics and p-value; Tests about Means and Proportions; Questions of Sample Size and Calculating the Probability of Type II Errors.
Comparative Experiments – Two Populations: Chapter 10
Estimation of Differences; Hypothesis Tests about Population Differences for both Independently Drawn Samples and Matched Samples; Calculation of Type II Errors; Experiments with Means and Proportions; Computerized Designs with Minitab.
Simple Linear Regression: Chapter 13
Method of Least Squares; Coefficients of Determination and Correlation; Model Assumptions; Testing for Significance; Using the Estimated Regression for Explanation and Prediction; Computer Solutions; Residual Analysis and Minitab Computer Techniques for such Analyses.
Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers: Chapter 16
Time Series, Smoothing, Trend Projection, Seasonality, Regression and Qualitative Approaches; Why use only Minitab or SAS, SPSS and Similar Software and Where Spreadsheet gives Inaccurate and Wrong Results; Index Numbers to Measure Price Change.
Methods for Quality Management (SQC): Chapter 18
SPC and the Role of Deming and Shewhart and other great ones; Acceptance Sampling.
There will be 3 examinations during Fall Semester 2004. Computer problems using Minitab will be handed in on the day assigned. It is also advisable that each student has a good and usable calculator. Students may use textbooks on the examination. Students should access by internet the website of Dr. Jarrett (address below) for messages to students.
Those students who have their own computer will be able to copy software for use in this and other classes from the Minitab CD-ROM included in your textbook.
Dr. Jeffrey Jarrett
222 Ballentine Hall
874-4169
http://www.cba.uri.edu/Faculty/jarrett/page3/htm
http://www.members.cox.net/jejarrett/page3/htm
______________________________________________________________________
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